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At the same time, Senator Obama's success in the Democratic primaries and caucuses and the genuine possibility (some would even say probability) that he will become the nation's 44th President, has introduced a new dynamic into our political culture. As I write, the morning's headlines have the Obama campaign condemning the lyrics in a new Ludacris song, while the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, is accusing his opponent of "playing the race card." To be sure, the road to this year's presidential election will wind through a great deal of uncharted territory.
Indeed, longstanding presumptions regarding presidential politics have been changing almost since the time Senator Obama entered the race.
For example, in past Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses, Black voters and working class whites usually coalesced around the same candidate. But this year, for the first time, a coalition of African Americans and whites with higher levels of education and income combined to select the Democratic nominee over the preferences of the white working class Democrats. In fact, one of Senator Obama's current challenges is to consolidate his support among those Democrats as he seeks to build a winning coalition for the fall campaign.
Though it may seem hard to believe now, Senator Hillary Clinton began her campaign with what appeared to be solid support from African American voters. Last fall, not long before the start of the primary and caucus season, a Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies poll of likely Black voters found that Senator Clinton was rated favorably by 83 percent of them, with Senator Obama receiving favorable ratings from 74 percent.
"African Americans will have more influence in selecting the leader of the free world than at any time in our nation's history."
This was no surprise at the time. Black Americans admired the Clintons. As Senator Clinton launched her own historic campaign for the presidency, she benefited greatly from that support and seemed to have strengthened it thanks to her own diligent efforts to reach out to African Americans, both as the First Lady and in her own political career.
As we all know, Senator Clinton was not able to convert her high favorability ratings among African Americans into primary and caucus votes. When all was said and done, according to exit polls, she captured just 15 percent of the African-American vote in the primaries, with Senator Obama garnering 82 percent.
WHAT HAPPENED?
For one thing, despite his obvious political and oratory skills and the intense media coverage his campaign has drawn from its earliest moments, Senator Obama is a relative newcomer on the national political scene. As of the middle of last year, many Black voters simply did not know him well - certainly not as well as they knew Senator Clinton, who had been a national figure for 15 years. As caucus and primary season heated up, more African Americans - and more voters in general - became familiar with Senator Obama and decided that they liked him.
As the Obama campaign gained traction with his win in the Iowa caucuses and a surge in his fundraising, a peculiar thing happened. Former President Clinton to that point was still enormously popular with African- Americans and noted for his sharp political skills. But perhaps under unexpected pre s s u re to defend his wife's candidacy from the Obama threat, he made a series of statements that many Black people found unacceptable. In the weeks that followed, while Senator Obama continued to win primaries by presenting himself as a unifying candidate who would break from politics as usual, Senator Clinton became the candidate of, in her campaign's loaded terminology, the "hardworking people" - which only served to further alienate Black voters.
The rest is history. As the race for the Democratic nomination narrowed down to the two historic candidacies of Obama and Clinton, the primary turnout among African Americans skyrocketed, more than doubling the 2004 turnout. In South Carolina, the first primary in a state with a large number of Black voters, it increased by 158 percent from four years earlier. In Georgia, another early primary, Black turnout increased by 247 percent . There were also large increases in Mississippi and Louisiana.
Over the course of the primary season, Senator Obama received at least three out of four Black Democratic Party voters. In Illinois, Mississippi, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, he received at least nine out of ten Black votes.
"Senator Obama is not the first Black candidate to win party convention delegates. Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm won 28 convention delegates in her race for the Democratic nomination in 1972. Rev. Jesse Jackson won five primaries and caucuses in 1984, and 11 in 1988."
With Senator Obama as the Democratic nominee, and the record-setting Black turnout in the primaries, the potential for a high, almost certainly record-setting level of Black mobilization in the 2008 presidential election is assured. What will this mean for Senator Obama's chances of winning the election?
Clearly, the nation's political landscape is much different today than it was just four years ago when President Bush won re-election over Senator John Kerry. Kerry's strong challenge - especially in the state-by-state electoral vote tally - was, in a sense, a precursor of what would happen in the mid- term elections in 2006. The Democrats ran strongly and gained control of both houses of Congress. On top of this, further economic difficulties, the sharp rise in energy prices, the lack of progress in the Iraq war, and general dissatisfaction with the direction of the country all will likely work to the advantage of Democratic candidates this fall.
To this mix, add some of the demographic and political changes that are occurring throughout the country - as well as the Obama campaign's skills in mobilizing voters and donors via its grassroots and Internet techniques - and the electoral map appears to especially favor the Democratic candidate. For example, Iowa, Ohio, several states in the American West, and the Commonwealth of Virginia are trending from Republican to Democratic, along with Indiana, neighbor to Obama's home state of Illinois.
The bottom line is that if Senator Obama wins all of the states that Kerry carried in 2004, which at this point appears likely, he will have 251 of the 270 electoral votes. As of this writing, he is solidly favored to win in Iowa and New Mexico, which were both won by President Bush in 2004 - this would give him a total of 12 more electoral votes and bring him to 263. He is also favored in another Bush state, Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes, so that state alone could put him over the top. Beyond that, Senator Obama is favored in Colorado (with nine electoral votes) and is running solidly competitive in a number of other Bush states, including Virginia (13), Nevada (5), Florida (27), Missouri (11), the Dakotas (6), Montana (3), and Indiana (11).
When you look at the race this way, the African-American vote becomes especially critical. Several of the competitive states - particularly Indiana, Ohio and Virginia - have large Black populations, as do some of the competitive states that Kerry won in 2004, most notably Michigan and Pennsylvania. Given the overwhelming interest in this election among African-American voters, as indicated by the large increases in Black participation in the Democratic primaries this year, all of this bodes well for Senator Obama's campaign. Accordingly, high voter turnout among African Americans is going to be critical.
Of course, the historic nature of Senator Obama's candidacy would be elevated many times over were he to win the presidency and govern as the nation's first non-white chief executive. Look carefully at what has gone on over the past 45 years since the culmination of the civil rights era and the passage of the Voting Rights Act. It is easier to understand that the Obama candidacy - while remarkable, groundbreaking and inspirational in so many ways - is certainly not a sudden miracle or simple twist of fate. Rather, it comes after a long and steady march of African Americans into the nation's political mainstream.
When I was in college back in the early 1970s, there were barely 1,500 African Americans serving in elected office across the entire nation at all levels, from member of Congress down to the local zoning boards. African Americans had few role models in politics and government - no Charlie Rangels, no Jim Clyburns, no Deval Patricks, and indeed no Barack Obamas. There were only pioneers. African Americans had only begun to engage in the process.
In fact, my Daddy was one of the first to step forward in a new era of progress toward African-American voting rights, civic engagement and political participation. In the wake of the Voting Rights Act, he and two other men broke the political color barrier in our community with their election to the Orangeburg County Council. The organization that I head today, the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, was founded at about that time to help African Americans navigate the uncharted road from civil rights activism to mainstream American politics. Through the political arena, Daddy and others like him could seek to transform their new political power into a better life for African Americans everywhere.
But slowly and steadily they became the nucleus of the new Black political class. Today, there are four African- American chairmen of powerful committees in the U.S. House of Representatives. The House Majority Whip is an African American. And there are more than 10,000 Black elected officials serving nationwide across every level of government, virtually all of whom are represented through organizations such as the Congressional Black Caucus, the National Conference of Black Mayors and others. In turn, these organizations are networked together through something called the National Policy Alliance, which is convened by the Joint Center. This progress, and particularly the growing involvement and influence of African Americans in our national affairs, helped pave the way for succeeding generations - people of color - to take their place in our public life.
Senator Obama, while having gotten closer to the presidency than any African American before him, is not the first Black candidate to win party convention delegates - that would be Congresswoman Shirley Chisholm, who won 28 convention delegates in her race for the Democratic nomination in 1972. Nor is he the first to win primaries - that would be the Rev. Jesse Jackson, who won five primaries and caucuses in 1984 and 11 of them in 1988.
But 20 years after the Rev. Jackson's last run, and amid the rapid and ongoing changes in our communications technologies - from YouTube to Facebook - the Obama candidacy has inspired a transformation in how many people view the subject of race and politics. It has generated a healthy, productive discussion about race relations, transformational leadership and what these things mean for our political system and our country. It represents enormous progress in our society, yes. But it also serves as a reminder that we must constantly strive to get to that "more perfect union."
The story from the primaries and caucuses is that the Obama candidacy has energized Black voters - and white voters and other people of color as well - as few candidates have ever been able to do. This election is a special one, indeed. African Americans will have more influence in selecting the leader of the free world than at any time in our nation's history.
Which brings me to my final point: If you haven't registered to vote, do it today. And be sure to vote on November 4. You may very well have the opportunity to carry with you, for the rest of your life, the knowledge that you helped make history in 2008.
